In some way we have all been touched by this pandemic, it is a certain fact. Given the scale of the ongoing pandemic and its ripple effect on our health, the economy on our emotions, no one on the planet has remained immune.

Some of us have lost loved ones or know people who have had a bereavement, a loss; many have lost their jobs; others risk losing it or losing their home in an eviction or other home.

Others have seen the value of their assets plummet. It is also true that some, a few lucky ones, have seen their wealth increase (eg Jeff). But whatever 2020 is, it has been a horrible year for all of us.

It is difficult to understand the extent of the pandemic, it is certain that the losses in terms of deaths in Italy and in Europe are many and we are not yet close to the end.

While recently released vaccines are vaccinated to us in a long-term perspective, it will still be many before enough vaccines are vaccinated to allow normal economic activity.

When it will end? We don't know and we can't know. When will employment start to rise seriously will business and leisure travelers feel about traveling and staying in hotels? Once again, it is impossible to know the conclusion of the crisis. Certainly, a widely distributed vaccine, but no one can accurately predict the timing of vaccination and vaccine distribution.

For 2021 STR et al have provided detailed forecasts, but at the moment I have little faith in the forecasts. Like all predictions, we are based on models that result in hypotheses and as we know the hypotheses can change with the development of events.

As a person who has been building models for the past 10 years and more, I am all too aware of how a change in a key input is reflected in a model. Regarding the forecasts of the hotel sector, a great unknown is the level of GDP growth, which in turn will be determined by factors including the pace of production and distribution of vaccines and how well the support and rescue measures are able to stimulate economic growth.

And then there are the big unknowns: will small and large managers return to the offices or will they continue to work from home? Will remote work lead to more travel as companies and organizations bring their workers together more regularly, or will they send them to conventions more frequently to keep them engaged in their industry?

More generally, what will the world be like? Will more people travel? Not me?

We just don't know.